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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.25+3.86vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.35+6.24vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.32+5.37vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University1.89+6.04vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.49+2.55vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.82+0.61vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.78-0.35vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.93+1.76vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.41-0.80vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.50-2.49vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+0.24vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University2.31-3.60vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.45-1.16vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.17-4.84vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland0.87-1.44vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University2.18-7.03vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland1.38-4.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.86U. S. Naval Academy3.250.2%1st Place
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8.24George Washington University2.350.1%1st Place
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8.37St. Mary's College of Maryland2.320.1%1st Place
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10.04Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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7.55U. S. Naval Academy2.490.1%1st Place
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6.61Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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6.65George Washington University2.780.1%1st Place
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9.76Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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8.2George Washington University2.410.1%1st Place
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7.51George Washington University2.500.1%1st Place
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11.24St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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8.4Christopher Newport University2.310.1%1st Place
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11.84Old Dominion University1.450.0%1st Place
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9.16U. S. Naval Academy2.170.0%1st Place
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13.56St. Mary's College of Maryland0.870.0%1st Place
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8.97Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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12.03St. Mary's College of Maryland1.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Bayless | 17.7% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Timms | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| Joshua Paper | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 2.0% |
| Spencer Charney | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% |
| Gray Benson | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Anthony Minder | 9.0% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 4.8% |
| Soenke Jordan | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| Matthew Priebe | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 10.6% |
| Javier Gonzalez Rotge | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 1.5% |
| Frank Frisinger | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 15.1% |
| Louis Margay | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| Christopher Booher | 0.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 9.9% | 16.2% | 33.1% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
| Jack Hemmelgarn | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 14.1% | 16.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.