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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Salve Regina University1.98+2.08vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.22+0.60vs Predicted
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3McGill University0.06+4.18vs Predicted
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4Sacred Heart University0.35+2.55vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.14-0.22vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.09+1.63vs Predicted
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7University of New Hampshire1.02-2.22vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont1.11-3.28vs Predicted
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9Wesleyan University-0.40-0.64vs Predicted
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10Middlebury College-1.47+0.79vs Predicted
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11Princeton University-1.24-0.69vs Predicted
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12Fairfield University-2.18-0.01vs Predicted
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13University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.89-3.65vs Predicted
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14Bates College-2.85-1.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.08Salve Regina University1.980.2%1st Place
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2.6Yale University2.220.3%1st Place
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7.18McGill University0.060.0%1st Place
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6.55Sacred Heart University0.350.0%1st Place
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4.78Tufts University1.140.1%1st Place
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7.63Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.090.0%1st Place
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4.78University of New Hampshire1.020.1%1st Place
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4.72University of Vermont1.110.1%1st Place
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8.36Wesleyan University-0.400.0%1st Place
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10.79Middlebury College-1.470.0%1st Place
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10.31Princeton University-1.240.0%1st Place
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11.99Fairfield University-2.180.0%1st Place
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9.35University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.890.0%1st Place
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12.88Bates College-2.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Bowdler | 23.7% | 23.7% | 16.5% | 13.6% | 11.4% | 6.4% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Catherine "B" Lindsay | 31.4% | 24.6% | 19.0% | 12.0% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Baird | 3.8% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 13.9% | 14.4% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Brian Hayes | 3.5% | 4.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 15.1% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Lera Anders | 8.7% | 9.9% | 14.9% | 14.4% | 14.2% | 13.6% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Seth Pardi | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Grace Cannon | 10.2% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 14.4% | 13.3% | 14.8% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 9.6% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 13.8% | 15.5% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Moore | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 15.1% | 15.9% | 11.7% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 0.4% |
| Julia Fairbank | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 15.2% | 21.9% | 17.8% | 10.4% |
| Charlie Flynn | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 18.9% | 19.2% | 14.5% | 6.1% |
| Sarah Bowman | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 5.9% | 10.3% | 17.0% | 30.3% | 25.3% |
| Michael Chisholm | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 13.4% | 14.7% | 15.4% | 14.0% | 8.8% | 2.3% |
| Oliver Russell | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 9.7% | 20.7% | 55.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.