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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Sacred Heart University0.35+5.46vs Predicted
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2University of New Hampshire1.02+2.81vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.14+1.62vs Predicted
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4Salve Regina University1.98-0.93vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.09+2.70vs Predicted
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6Middlebury College-1.47+4.80vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.22-4.40vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont1.11-3.25vs Predicted
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9McGill University0.06-1.75vs Predicted
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10Wesleyan University-0.40-1.58vs Predicted
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11University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.89-1.48vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-1.24-1.76vs Predicted
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13Fairfield University-2.18-1.09vs Predicted
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14Bates College-2.85-1.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.46Sacred Heart University0.350.0%1st Place
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4.81University of New Hampshire1.020.1%1st Place
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4.62Tufts University1.140.1%1st Place
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3.07Salve Regina University1.980.2%1st Place
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7.7Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.090.0%1st Place
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10.8Middlebury College-1.470.0%1st Place
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2.6Yale University2.220.3%1st Place
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4.75University of Vermont1.110.1%1st Place
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7.25McGill University0.060.0%1st Place
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8.42Wesleyan University-0.400.0%1st Place
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9.52University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.890.0%1st Place
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10.24Princeton University-1.240.0%1st Place
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11.91Fairfield University-2.180.0%1st Place
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12.86Bates College-2.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hayes | 4.2% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Grace Cannon | 9.0% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 16.4% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lera Anders | 10.6% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 15.7% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Bowdler | 22.9% | 22.2% | 19.5% | 14.3% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Seth Pardi | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 14.4% | 14.7% | 13.2% | 8.9% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Julia Fairbank | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 10.3% | 16.4% | 20.6% | 19.4% | 9.9% |
| Catherine "B" Lindsay | 31.6% | 25.1% | 17.1% | 13.1% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 10.0% | 12.1% | 13.8% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Baird | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 14.7% | 15.9% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Owen Moore | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 14.7% | 14.0% | 12.5% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| Michael Chisholm | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 15.3% | 16.9% | 14.9% | 10.1% | 1.8% |
| Charlie Flynn | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 15.5% | 16.1% | 18.9% | 14.1% | 5.6% |
| Sarah Bowman | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 9.7% | 15.1% | 31.7% | 24.9% |
| Oliver Russell | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 10.2% | 18.8% | 55.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.