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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Salve Regina University1.98+2.07vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.22+0.62vs Predicted
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3Sacred Heart University0.35+3.51vs Predicted
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4University of New Hampshire1.02+0.99vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.14-0.26vs Predicted
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6McGill University0.06+1.30vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont1.11-2.41vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.09-0.48vs Predicted
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9Middlebury College-1.47+1.78vs Predicted
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10University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.89-0.44vs Predicted
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11Bates College-2.85+2.00vs Predicted
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12Wesleyan University-0.40-3.59vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-1.12-3.03vs Predicted
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14Fairfield University-2.18-2.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.07Salve Regina University1.980.2%1st Place
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2.62Yale University2.220.3%1st Place
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6.51Sacred Heart University0.350.0%1st Place
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4.99University of New Hampshire1.020.1%1st Place
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4.74Tufts University1.140.1%1st Place
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7.3McGill University0.060.0%1st Place
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4.59University of Vermont1.110.1%1st Place
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7.52Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.090.0%1st Place
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10.78Middlebury College-1.470.0%1st Place
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9.56University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.890.0%1st Place
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13.0Bates College-2.850.0%1st Place
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8.41Wesleyan University-0.400.0%1st Place
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9.97Princeton University-1.120.0%1st Place
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11.94Fairfield University-2.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Bowdler | 24.9% | 22.6% | 18.1% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Catherine "B" Lindsay | 32.1% | 23.3% | 19.2% | 12.7% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Hayes | 4.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 13.8% | 13.2% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Grace Cannon | 7.0% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 13.5% | 15.2% | 15.1% | 10.8% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lera Anders | 8.9% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 17.4% | 14.8% | 12.3% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Baird | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 11.2% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 14.4% | 16.0% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Seth Pardi | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 13.9% | 13.2% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 5.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Julia Fairbank | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 10.6% | 16.1% | 21.9% | 19.7% | 8.9% |
| Michael Chisholm | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 14.7% | 15.9% | 16.9% | 8.7% | 2.4% |
| Oliver Russell | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 9.3% | 17.5% | 60.3% |
| Owen Moore | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 13.2% | 13.4% | 14.4% | 12.7% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| William Cowen-Breen | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 9.9% | 15.1% | 16.9% | 18.3% | 13.0% | 3.5% |
| Sarah Bowman | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 10.4% | 14.2% | 33.4% | 23.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.