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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University4.78+5.72vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48+10.22vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University5.19+2.32vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy4.34+4.54vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.70+6.56vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania3.63+5.46vs Predicted
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7Yale University4.19+2.26vs Predicted
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8Boston University4.07+1.96vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University4.01+0.81vs Predicted
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10University of Miami2.43+5.87vs Predicted
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11Stanford University3.90-0.55vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island3.62+0.01vs Predicted
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13Harvard University4.52-5.42vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida3.48-1.61vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont3.62-3.53vs Predicted
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16Salve Regina University3.31-3.18vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45-8.97vs Predicted
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18St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83-11.60vs Predicted
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19College of Charleston4.34-10.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.72Roger Williams University4.780.1%1st Place
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12.22U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.0%1st Place
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5.32Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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8.54U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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11.56Tufts University3.700.0%1st Place
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11.46University of Pennsylvania3.630.0%1st Place
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9.26Yale University4.190.1%1st Place
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9.96Boston University4.070.1%1st Place
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9.81Old Dominion University4.010.0%1st Place
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15.87University of Miami2.430.0%1st Place
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10.45Stanford University3.900.0%1st Place
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12.01University of Rhode Island3.620.0%1st Place
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7.58Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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12.39University of South Florida3.480.0%1st Place
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11.47University of Vermont3.620.0%1st Place
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12.82Salve Regina University3.310.0%1st Place
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8.03Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.1%1st Place
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6.4St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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8.14College of Charleston4.340.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cy Thompson | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.0% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 15.5% | 13.3% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Vann | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Massimo Soriano | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 4.4% |
| Halsey Richartz | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 5.7% |
| Joseph Morris | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| Ben Greenfield | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.4% |
| Dillon Paiva | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| Alex Olt | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 42.7% |
| Mateo Vargas | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.5% |
| Matthew Carmody | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 5.5% |
| Alan Palmer | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| SEAN Ross | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 7.4% |
| Coleman Bowen | 3.1% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 6.6% |
| Matthew Schon | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 9.6% |
| David Thompson | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Michael Menninger | 9.8% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Jackson Benvenutti | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.