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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
24
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.73+3.50vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.96+5.17vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.04+3.86vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45+5.20vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii2.28+0.94vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy1.49+2.89vs Predicted
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7University of Washington1.53+1.67vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley1.66+0.43vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis-0.19+7.08vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley1.36-0.40vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego1.45-1.56vs Predicted
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12California Poly Maritime Academy2.08-5.28vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University0.56+0.19vs Predicted
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14University of Hawaii0.87-2.60vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-0.10+0.91vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine-0.09-0.34vs Predicted
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17California State University Channel Islands-0.97+1.90vs Predicted
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18San Diego State University-0.99+0.96vs Predicted
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19University of California at Santa Cruz1.15-8.82vs Predicted
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20University of California at Davis0.13-5.27vs Predicted
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21California State University Monterey Bay-0.62-3.41vs Predicted
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22Santa Clara University-0.95-3.23vs Predicted
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23California State University Monterey Bay-0.62-5.41vs Predicted
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24University of Oregon-1.10-4.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.5University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.2%1st Place
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7.17University of Southern California1.960.1%1st Place
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6.86Stanford University2.040.1%1st Place
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9.2Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.0%1st Place
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5.94University of Hawaii2.280.1%1st Place
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8.89California Poly Maritime Academy1.490.1%1st Place
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8.67University of Washington1.530.1%1st Place
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8.43University of California at Berkeley1.660.1%1st Place
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16.08University of California at Davis-0.190.0%1st Place
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9.6University of California at Berkeley1.360.0%1st Place
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9.44University of California at San Diego1.450.0%1st Place
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6.72California Poly Maritime Academy2.080.1%1st Place
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13.19San Diego State University0.560.0%1st Place
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11.4University of Hawaii0.870.0%1st Place
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15.91University of California at Los Angeles-0.100.0%1st Place
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15.66University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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18.9California State University Channel Islands-0.970.0%1st Place
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18.96San Diego State University-0.990.0%1st Place
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10.18University of California at Santa Cruz1.150.0%1st Place
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14.73University of California at Davis0.130.0%1st Place
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17.59California State University Monterey Bay-0.620.0%1st Place
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18.77Santa Clara University-0.950.0%1st Place
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17.59California State University Monterey Bay-0.620.0%1st Place
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19.22University of Oregon-1.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Pierce | 17.8% | 14.7% | 14.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Yakutis | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Kirkpatrick | 7.9% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Hood | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Wilkinson | 10.2% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emi Stephanoff | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Skeel | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Hayes | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Letchinger | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Ciara Dorsay | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Dorn | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Fisker-Andersen | 9.6% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Schrady | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Hayden Lahr | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maddy Kuhn | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Gates | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 16.2% | 19.3% | 0.0% |
| Megan McGlothlin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 15.2% | 17.2% | 17.7% | 0.0% |
| Aitor Iriso | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jayden Potter | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Caila Devlin | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| Jay Weber | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 16.5% | 20.4% | 0.0% |
| Caila Devlin | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| Tillie Morris | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 10.9% | 13.0% | 16.0% | 21.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.