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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.73+3.22vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.04+4.22vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45+5.28vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy2.08+1.89vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii2.28+0.30vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.96+0.34vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley1.66+0.31vs Predicted
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8San Diego State University0.56+3.04vs Predicted
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9University of Washington1.53-1.24vs Predicted
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10California Poly Maritime Academy1.49-1.89vs Predicted
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11University of Hawaii0.87-0.78vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego1.45-3.65vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley1.36-4.72vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay-0.62+0.32vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-0.97+0.33vs Predicted
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16California State University Monterey Bay-0.62-1.68vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-0.10-3.77vs Predicted
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18University of Oregon-1.10-2.38vs Predicted
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19San Diego State University-0.99-3.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.22University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.2%1st Place
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6.22Stanford University2.040.1%1st Place
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8.28Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.0%1st Place
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5.89California Poly Maritime Academy2.080.1%1st Place
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5.3University of Hawaii2.280.1%1st Place
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6.34University of Southern California1.960.1%1st Place
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7.31University of California at Berkeley1.660.1%1st Place
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11.04San Diego State University0.560.0%1st Place
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7.76University of Washington1.530.1%1st Place
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8.11California Poly Maritime Academy1.490.1%1st Place
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10.22University of Hawaii0.870.0%1st Place
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8.35University of California at San Diego1.450.0%1st Place
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8.28University of California at Berkeley1.360.1%1st Place
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14.32California State University Monterey Bay-0.620.0%1st Place
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15.33California State University Channel Islands-0.970.0%1st Place
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14.32California State University Monterey Bay-0.620.0%1st Place
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13.23University of California at Los Angeles-0.100.0%1st Place
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15.62University of Oregon-1.100.0%1st Place
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15.17San Diego State University-0.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Pierce | 16.9% | 17.1% | 14.5% | 12.6% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Kirkpatrick | 7.7% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Hood | 3.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Fisker-Andersen | 10.4% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Wilkinson | 13.5% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Yakutis | 9.1% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Hayes | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Schrady | 2.7% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 11.9% | 13.8% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Erik Skeel | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emi Stephanoff | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hayden Lahr | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Dorn | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ciara Dorsay | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Caila Devlin | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 15.7% | 18.6% | 16.6% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Gates | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 8.0% | 11.4% | 18.3% | 20.3% | 25.3% | 0.0% |
| Caila Devlin | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 15.7% | 18.6% | 16.6% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| Maddy Kuhn | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 14.9% | 16.0% | 13.6% | 11.4% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| Tillie Morris | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 14.0% | 23.7% | 31.3% | 0.0% |
| Megan McGlothlin | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 12.5% | 17.4% | 22.3% | 22.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.