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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.73+3.23vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45+6.33vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.28+2.50vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley1.66+3.26vs Predicted
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5University of Washington1.53+2.75vs Predicted
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6Stanford University2.04+0.17vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California1.96-0.69vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego1.45+0.02vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley1.36-0.63vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University0.56+1.31vs Predicted
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11California Poly Maritime Academy1.49-2.89vs Predicted
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12California Poly Maritime Academy2.08-5.81vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-0.100.00vs Predicted
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14University of Hawaii0.87-4.13vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-0.97+0.29vs Predicted
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16California State University Monterey Bay-0.62-1.47vs Predicted
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17University of Oregon-1.10-1.40vs Predicted
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18California State University Monterey Bay-0.62-3.47vs Predicted
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19San Diego State University-0.99-3.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.23University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.2%1st Place
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8.33Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.0%1st Place
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5.5University of Hawaii2.280.1%1st Place
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7.26University of California at Berkeley1.660.1%1st Place
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7.75University of Washington1.530.1%1st Place
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6.17Stanford University2.040.1%1st Place
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6.31University of Southern California1.960.1%1st Place
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8.02University of California at San Diego1.450.1%1st Place
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8.37University of California at Berkeley1.360.0%1st Place
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11.31San Diego State University0.560.0%1st Place
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8.11California Poly Maritime Academy1.490.1%1st Place
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6.19California Poly Maritime Academy2.080.1%1st Place
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13.0University of California at Los Angeles-0.100.0%1st Place
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9.87University of Hawaii0.870.0%1st Place
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15.29California State University Channel Islands-0.970.0%1st Place
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14.53California State University Monterey Bay-0.620.0%1st Place
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15.6University of Oregon-1.100.0%1st Place
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14.53California State University Monterey Bay-0.620.0%1st Place
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15.18San Diego State University-0.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Pierce | 17.7% | 17.8% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Hood | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Wilkinson | 10.5% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Hayes | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Skeel | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Kirkpatrick | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Yakutis | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Dorn | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ciara Dorsay | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Schrady | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 13.6% | 12.9% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 4.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Emi Stephanoff | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Fisker-Andersen | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maddy Kuhn | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 16.6% | 14.3% | 10.0% | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| Hayden Lahr | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Gates | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 8.0% | 12.1% | 16.7% | 21.3% | 24.3% | 0.0% |
| Caila Devlin | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 6.4% | 10.9% | 15.2% | 16.5% | 18.7% | 14.5% | 0.0% |
| Tillie Morris | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 10.3% | 15.5% | 22.0% | 30.8% | 0.0% |
| Caila Devlin | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 6.4% | 10.9% | 15.2% | 16.5% | 18.7% | 14.5% | 0.0% |
| Megan McGlothlin | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 7.2% | 12.1% | 18.5% | 20.4% | 24.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.