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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
24
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.73+3.47vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego1.45+7.21vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.04+3.84vs Predicted
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4University of California at Irvine-0.09+11.51vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley1.66+3.26vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.96+0.96vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz1.15+3.12vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45+1.24vs Predicted
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9California Poly Maritime Academy2.08-2.42vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-0.19+5.86vs Predicted
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11University of Hawaii2.28-4.92vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley1.36-2.46vs Predicted
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13California Poly Maritime Academy1.49-4.02vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University0.56-1.32vs Predicted
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15University of Washington1.53-5.99vs Predicted
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16California State University Channel Islands-0.97+2.48vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis0.13-2.21vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin-2.13+3.33vs Predicted
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19California State University Monterey Bay-0.62-1.77vs Predicted
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20San Diego State University-0.99-1.49vs Predicted
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21University of California at Los Angeles-0.10-5.44vs Predicted
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22University of Hawaii0.87-10.28vs Predicted
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23California State University Monterey Bay-0.62-5.77vs Predicted
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24University of Oregon-1.10-4.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.47University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.2%1st Place
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9.21University of California at San Diego1.450.0%1st Place
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6.84Stanford University2.040.1%1st Place
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15.51University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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8.26University of California at Berkeley1.660.1%1st Place
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6.96University of Southern California1.960.1%1st Place
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10.12University of California at Santa Cruz1.150.0%1st Place
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9.24Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.1%1st Place
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6.58California Poly Maritime Academy2.080.1%1st Place
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15.86University of California at Davis-0.190.0%1st Place
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6.08University of Hawaii2.280.1%1st Place
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9.54University of California at Berkeley1.360.0%1st Place
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8.98California Poly Maritime Academy1.490.1%1st Place
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12.68San Diego State University0.560.0%1st Place
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9.01University of Washington1.530.1%1st Place
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18.48California State University Channel Islands-0.970.0%1st Place
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14.79University of California at Davis0.130.0%1st Place
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21.33University of Wisconsin-2.130.0%1st Place
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17.23California State University Monterey Bay-0.620.0%1st Place
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18.51San Diego State University-0.990.0%1st Place
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15.56University of California at Los Angeles-0.100.0%1st Place
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11.72University of Hawaii0.870.0%1st Place
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17.23California State University Monterey Bay-0.620.0%1st Place
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19.03University of Oregon-1.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Pierce | 17.5% | 15.9% | 13.4% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Dorn | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Kirkpatrick | 8.3% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 13.1% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Drake Hayes | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Yakutis | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aitor Iriso | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Hood | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Fisker-Andersen | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Letchinger | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Wilkinson | 9.9% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ciara Dorsay | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emi Stephanoff | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Schrady | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Erik Skeel | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Gates | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 14.8% | 19.0% | 10.8% | 0.0% |
| Jayden Potter | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Macy O'Malley | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 15.4% | 55.7% | 0.0% |
| Caila Devlin | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 13.1% | 11.5% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| Megan McGlothlin | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 14.5% | 18.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| Maddy Kuhn | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Hayden Lahr | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caila Devlin | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 13.1% | 11.5% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| Tillie Morris | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 16.5% | 18.0% | 13.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.