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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.82+2.18vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara0.56+3.58vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles1.30+1.04vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley-0.61+4.72vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.73+0.47vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.09+1.05vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara2.68-5.02vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.61+3.06vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-0.60-0.22vs Predicted
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10California Poly Maritime Academy-0.82-0.64vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.60-2.22vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University-1.71-0.62vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-0.29-5.18vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-1.95-2.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.18University of California at Santa Barbara1.820.2%1st Place
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5.58University of California at Santa Barbara0.560.1%1st Place
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4.04University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
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8.72University of California at Berkeley-0.610.0%1st Place
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5.47University of California at Berkeley0.730.1%1st Place
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7.05University of California at Los Angeles0.090.0%1st Place
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1.98University of California at Santa Barbara2.680.5%1st Place
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11.06Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.610.0%1st Place
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8.78University of California at San Diego-0.600.0%1st Place
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9.36California Poly Maritime Academy-0.820.0%1st Place
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8.78Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.600.0%1st Place
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11.38Arizona State University-1.710.0%1st Place
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7.82San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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11.79Arizona State University-1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Kraak | 19.5% | 23.2% | 21.1% | 13.3% | 11.3% | 6.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Holbrook | 5.4% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 13.9% | 11.2% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 12.2% | 15.1% | 17.8% | 16.4% | 13.7% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Deshler | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 5.4% | 3.0% |
| Kingsley Ehrich | 5.2% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 15.6% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Ian Marshall | 2.5% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Sidney Gathrid | 45.5% | 26.9% | 16.8% | 7.1% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Corey Quillen | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 20.2% | 23.4% |
| Marie-Laure Golier | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 3.0% |
| Aiden Doyle | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 13.9% | 10.2% | 5.6% |
| Mitchell Carroll | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 2.9% |
| Calum Merry | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 11.9% | 17.3% | 19.2% | 24.9% |
| Erik Hallback | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% |
| Corbin Bendel | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 22.5% | 34.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.