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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.95+1.57vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+0.64vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.60+1.91vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara-0.64+4.04vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy1.61-1.86vs Predicted
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6San Diego State University-0.46+1.67vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-0.75+1.36vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-0.61+0.07vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-1.57+1.67vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-2.34+2.56vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.96-1.97vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.69-3.54vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.35-2.73vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.74-2.93vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-2.39-2.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.57University of California at Santa Barbara1.950.3%1st Place
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2.64University of California at Santa Barbara1.850.3%1st Place
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4.91University of California at Berkeley0.600.1%1st Place
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8.04University of California at Santa Barbara-0.640.0%1st Place
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3.14California Poly Maritime Academy1.610.2%1st Place
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7.67San Diego State University-0.460.0%1st Place
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8.36University of California at San Diego-0.750.0%1st Place
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8.07University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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10.67University of California at Los Angeles-1.570.0%1st Place
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12.56Arizona State University-2.340.0%1st Place
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9.03Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.960.0%1st Place
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8.46University of California at Berkeley-0.690.0%1st Place
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10.27Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.350.0%1st Place
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11.07Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.740.0%1st Place
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12.54Arizona State University-2.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Zieba | 30.6% | 25.5% | 19.4% | 13.3% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Alexander | 27.9% | 26.7% | 18.6% | 14.8% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EVAN TWIGG-SMITH | 7.1% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 16.0% | 16.3% | 14.0% | 11.3% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Kripac | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Justin Zmina | 19.8% | 20.8% | 22.2% | 17.3% | 10.0% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Wild | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Canyon Breyer | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 13.1% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 1.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Mingyi Chen | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 14.6% | 13.7% | 6.8% |
| Mary Spearman | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 19.0% | 33.8% |
| Millan Chaudhary | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 3.3% |
| Francesco Olivero | 2.0% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 0.8% |
| Sebastien Danthinne | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 13.6% | 9.8% | 7.4% |
| Jeffrey Romeo | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 14.2% | 17.6% | 11.1% |
| Nicholas Peters | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 20.0% | 33.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.