Race 3A

washington-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

83.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Connor Mraz 29.3% 27.4% 18.6% 13.1% 6.7% 3.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Filip Stevanovic 7.8% 10.7% 12.7% 16.2% 17.7% 20.3% 10.8% 3.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Erin McGarry 14.7% 12.4% 18.4% 16.6% 16.8% 14.4% 5.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
John DeRuff 10.2% 13.6% 16.9% 14.5% 18.1% 16.5% 7.8% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nick Chisari 8.4% 9.8% 11.8% 16.4% 16.9% 20.4% 11.8% 3.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Yanni Tsetsekos 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% 1.4% 4.3% 5.5% 15.6% 21.7% 18.8% 17.3% 8.5% 3.7%
Stewart Gurnell 26.0% 23.1% 17.2% 16.0% 10.6% 5.6% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sophia Rosahl 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 2.0% 3.9% 8.1% 12.7% 15.4% 19.9% 20.3% 15.6%
Kevin Johnston 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.5% 2.2% 4.9% 16.9% 21.3% 21.4% 14.9% 9.3% 4.7%
River Dixon 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 10.0% 17.5% 19.5% 18.5% 15.8% 9.9%
Claire Bullard 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 1.1% 0.9% 4.9% 7.8% 11.3% 14.4% 24.5% 33.2%
Lauryn Schiller 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 1.1% 1.6% 5.8% 8.9% 11.6% 14.9% 21.6% 32.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.