Race 4A

washington-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Connor Mraz 32.3% 22.6% 20.3% 13.1% 6.6% 3.9% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
John DeRuff 9.8% 13.6% 15.7% 17.1% 19.1% 16.2% 6.7% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Erin McGarry 14.0% 15.2% 14.9% 18.0% 17.7% 14.3% 4.4% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nick Chisari 7.5% 10.3% 12.9% 15.4% 18.0% 20.3% 11.1% 3.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stewart Gurnell 23.5% 25.8% 18.3% 13.7% 11.0% 5.8% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Filip Stevanovic 9.1% 9.1% 12.8% 14.7% 16.7% 22.1% 11.5% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Sophia Rosahl 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 1.6% 2.5% 9.2% 13.3% 18.5% 16.7% 19.2% 15.8%
River Dixon 0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 1.5% 2.2% 4.4% 11.4% 16.5% 16.0% 18.8% 16.6% 10.8%
Lauryn Schiller 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.9% 1.2% 5.2% 10.7% 12.2% 16.3% 22.9% 29.3%
Yanni Tsetsekos 0.5% 1.0% 1.7% 3.0% 3.6% 4.2% 17.1% 21.2% 21.4% 13.9% 8.7% 3.7%
Kevin Johnston 1.2% 0.8% 0.9% 1.7% 1.8% 3.4% 15.7% 20.3% 18.9% 17.8% 11.0% 6.5%
Claire Bullard 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 1.7% 5.0% 7.9% 11.2% 16.2% 21.6% 33.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.