Race 1B

washington-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

75.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Ryan Janov 59.9% 25.2% 10.5% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William Sunkler 11.5% 22.5% 20.9% 18.5% 12.3% 7.8% 4.8% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Connor Larson 5.7% 7.3% 10.9% 13.9% 15.2% 16.2% 16.1% 10.1% 4.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Can Dilikoglu 8.3% 15.8% 20.3% 17.0% 16.4% 10.6% 7.2% 3.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tyler Butler 2.4% 4.0% 5.6% 7.8% 10.1% 13.6% 17.0% 18.8% 12.3% 6.8% 1.5% 0.1%
Nick Senich 3.5% 6.3% 10.0% 11.8% 13.9% 15.7% 16.3% 13.7% 7.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Ryan Flanagan 1.8% 3.5% 6.0% 4.7% 8.4% 12.5% 14.0% 21.2% 16.1% 7.7% 3.2% 0.9%
Brian Tiernan 5.7% 13.2% 13.6% 18.2% 14.8% 15.5% 10.2% 6.0% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Robert Chapman 0.3% 0.9% 0.5% 1.8% 2.2% 3.2% 5.5% 10.1% 22.6% 24.0% 19.1% 9.8%
Tyler Merrow 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 2.1% 3.2% 2.1% 3.6% 5.7% 15.1% 22.4% 25.1% 19.7%
William Jones 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 1.5% 1.1% 2.9% 6.3% 12.0% 20.3% 25.7% 27.7%
Zhenyu Yin 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% 1.3% 2.4% 3.2% 7.6% 16.2% 24.9% 41.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.