Race 3B

washington-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
William Sunkler 26.0% 21.8% 19.4% 12.3% 9.1% 5.6% 3.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Can Dilikoglu 18.5% 19.3% 16.3% 15.6% 10.1% 8.9% 6.4% 3.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Connor Larson 10.4% 9.8% 10.7% 11.3% 14.2% 12.3% 14.6% 8.8% 5.3% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Ryan Flanagan 2.6% 4.6% 3.1% 6.3% 8.0% 11.8% 12.4% 15.4% 16.7% 12.4% 5.4% 1.3%
Sydney Register 12.2% 13.1% 14.3% 13.5% 12.9% 11.4% 9.4% 7.1% 4.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Brian Tiernan 13.5% 12.3% 12.8% 15.2% 13.4% 13.4% 9.4% 5.6% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Nick Senich 8.1% 9.5% 9.9% 11.1% 11.8% 11.8% 13.6% 13.2% 6.0% 3.9% 0.9% 0.2%
Richard Chui 1.8% 2.6% 4.3% 2.8% 5.1% 5.5% 9.6% 12.4% 20.5% 18.8% 12.4% 4.2%
Tyler Butler 4.6% 4.6% 6.1% 7.4% 11.1% 12.8% 13.5% 16.6% 14.7% 6.5% 1.8% 0.3%
Robert Chapman 1.0% 0.7% 1.6% 2.9% 2.1% 2.5% 3.4% 7.5% 13.2% 22.3% 24.3% 18.5%
Damien Hollyday 1.0% 0.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.9% 2.0% 2.0% 4.6% 7.3% 15.7% 28.5% 35.9%
William Jones 0.3% 1.1% 0.6% 1.0% 1.3% 2.0% 2.5% 3.7% 6.8% 15.0% 26.1% 39.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.