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📊 Prediction Accuracy
10.5%
Within 2 Positions
5.1
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45+7.13vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy4.34+6.52vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+3.61vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48+8.29vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.70+6.64vs Predicted
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6Boston University4.07+3.64vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.90+3.49vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida3.48+4.45vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University5.19-3.86vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston4.34-1.58vs Predicted
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11Yale University4.19-1.88vs Predicted
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12University of Miami2.43+4.21vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University4.78-6.53vs Predicted
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14Harvard University4.52-6.09vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University4.01-5.14vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island3.62-4.48vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont3.62-5.45vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania3.63-6.51vs Predicted
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19Salve Regina University3.31-6.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.13Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.1%1st Place
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8.52U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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6.61St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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12.29U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.0%1st Place
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11.64Tufts University3.700.0%1st Place
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9.64Boston University4.070.1%1st Place
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10.49Stanford University3.900.0%1st Place
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12.45University of South Florida3.480.0%1st Place
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5.14Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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8.42College of Charleston4.340.1%1st Place
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9.12Yale University4.190.0%1st Place
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16.21University of Miami2.430.0%1st Place
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6.47Roger Williams University4.780.1%1st Place
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7.91Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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9.86Old Dominion University4.010.0%1st Place
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11.52University of Rhode Island3.620.0%1st Place
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11.55University of Vermont3.620.0%1st Place
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11.49University of Pennsylvania3.630.0%1st Place
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12.54Salve Regina University3.310.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Thompson | 5.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Robert Vann | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Michael Menninger | 11.0% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 7.1% |
| Massimo Soriano | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 4.3% |
| Ben Greenfield | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 1.6% |
| Mateo Vargas | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 1.6% |
| SEAN Ross | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 8.8% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 16.4% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jackson Benvenutti | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Joseph Morris | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| Alex Olt | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 46.8% |
| Cy Thompson | 10.2% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Alan Palmer | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Dillon Paiva | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 2.2% |
| Matthew Carmody | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 5.2% |
| Coleman Bowen | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 4.7% |
| Halsey Richartz | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 4.8% |
| Matthew Schon | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 9.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.