Race 1B

fairfield-cup

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

83.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.0
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Ryan Hamilton 17.3% 18.3% 18.4% 18.4% 12.7% 7.9% 4.1% 2.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Noah Ferrarotto 11.2% 14.3% 15.2% 15.6% 14.6% 13.1% 9.6% 4.4% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Elena Gonick 17.1% 15.9% 19.1% 14.3% 13.8% 10.8% 5.7% 2.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nils Tullberg 34.3% 27.4% 16.5% 11.9% 5.1% 3.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacob Asher 4.8% 5.6% 8.2% 10.3% 13.6% 14.8% 16.4% 11.9% 8.8% 4.7% 0.9% 0.0%
David Perez 5.3% 6.5% 8.2% 10.1% 12.7% 16.1% 13.8% 14.6% 8.5% 3.5% 0.7% 0.0%
Owen Daniell 3.5% 4.8% 6.0% 6.3% 11.1% 11.3% 16.1% 16.9% 13.5% 7.8% 2.4% 0.3%
Ned Herrington 3.7% 3.8% 4.9% 6.7% 7.6% 11.5% 13.6% 18.4% 17.0% 9.4% 3.3% 0.1%
John Stalzer 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.8% 4.5% 6.1% 10.4% 14.8% 21.5% 23.9% 10.6% 0.6%
Grace Hering 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 2.2% 3.1% 2.4% 5.4% 6.8% 16.2% 24.7% 34.4% 2.6%
Katherine Boback 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 1.1% 1.1% 2.6% 3.8% 6.3% 11.0% 23.4% 43.3% 5.0%
Joe Blackburn 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% 2.3% 4.4% 91.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.