← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
83.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Salve Regina University1.74+1.46vs Predicted
-
2University of Vermont1.11+1.44vs Predicted
-
3Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.08+2.76vs Predicted
-
4Tufts University0.99-0.29vs Predicted
-
5McGill University0.73-0.87vs Predicted
-
6Bates College-0.52+0.69vs Predicted
-
7Yale University-0.11-1.27vs Predicted
-
8Fairfield University-1.40+0.26vs Predicted
-
9Wesleyan University-0.66-2.12vs Predicted
-
10Middlebury College-2.09-0.63vs Predicted
-
11Amherst College-2.30-1.22vs Predicted
-
12University of Connecticut-4.98-0.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.46Salve Regina University1.740.3%1st Place
-
3.44University of Vermont1.110.2%1st Place
-
5.76Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.080.1%1st Place
-
3.71Tufts University0.990.2%1st Place
-
4.13McGill University0.730.1%1st Place
-
6.69Bates College-0.520.0%1st Place
-
5.73Yale University-0.110.1%1st Place
-
8.26Fairfield University-1.400.0%1st Place
-
6.88Wesleyan University-0.660.0%1st Place
-
9.37Middlebury College-2.090.0%1st Place
-
9.78Amherst College-2.300.0%1st Place
-
11.8University of Connecticut-4.980.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nils Tullberg | 33.7% | 26.2% | 18.6% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 16.9% | 21.0% | 19.3% | 14.8% | 11.6% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Perez | 6.5% | 5.0% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 15.8% | 17.2% | 12.7% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Elena Gonick | 15.2% | 18.1% | 16.3% | 15.9% | 14.0% | 11.1% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Ferrarotto | 12.5% | 13.6% | 15.9% | 15.8% | 15.7% | 11.3% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Daniell | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 11.9% | 15.8% | 17.0% | 15.7% | 9.0% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Jacob Asher | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 16.3% | 13.1% | 8.3% | 4.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| John Stalzer | 1.2% | 1.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 13.8% | 20.5% | 24.4% | 12.1% | 0.9% |
| Ned Herrington | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 16.3% | 19.4% | 15.6% | 8.1% | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| Grace Hering | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 7.3% | 15.8% | 25.2% | 33.9% | 2.8% |
| Katherine Boback | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 6.4% | 10.9% | 22.8% | 44.3% | 4.7% |
| Joe Blackburn | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 91.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.