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📊 Prediction Accuracy
75.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont1.11+2.50vs Predicted
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2Tufts University0.99+1.69vs Predicted
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3Yale University-0.11+2.80vs Predicted
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4Salve Regina University1.74-1.55vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.08+0.77vs Predicted
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6Bates College-0.52+0.65vs Predicted
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7Wesleyan University-0.66-0.18vs Predicted
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8McGill University0.73-3.95vs Predicted
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9Fairfield University-1.40-0.70vs Predicted
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10Amherst College-2.30-0.34vs Predicted
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11Middlebury College-2.09-1.48vs Predicted
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12University of Connecticut-4.98-0.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.5University of Vermont1.110.2%1st Place
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3.69Tufts University0.990.2%1st Place
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5.8Yale University-0.110.1%1st Place
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2.45Salve Regina University1.740.3%1st Place
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5.77Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.080.1%1st Place
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6.65Bates College-0.520.0%1st Place
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6.82Wesleyan University-0.660.0%1st Place
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4.05McGill University0.730.1%1st Place
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8.3Fairfield University-1.400.0%1st Place
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9.66Amherst College-2.300.0%1st Place
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9.52Middlebury College-2.090.0%1st Place
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11.81University of Connecticut-4.980.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Hamilton | 15.7% | 18.9% | 19.4% | 17.7% | 13.3% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elena Gonick | 15.7% | 15.8% | 19.8% | 15.3% | 13.7% | 9.9% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Asher | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 15.2% | 16.2% | 14.3% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Nils Tullberg | 33.6% | 27.3% | 16.6% | 12.0% | 6.7% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Perez | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 14.2% | 14.8% | 16.6% | 12.6% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Owen Daniell | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 15.0% | 14.5% | 17.6% | 15.0% | 7.5% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Ned Herrington | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 13.8% | 17.1% | 16.8% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 0.1% |
| Noah Ferrarotto | 14.1% | 14.1% | 15.8% | 15.3% | 14.6% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| John Stalzer | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 15.1% | 22.0% | 23.0% | 11.4% | 0.5% |
| Katherine Boback | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 6.9% | 10.7% | 23.0% | 43.0% | 3.7% |
| Grace Hering | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 14.2% | 28.1% | 34.4% | 3.6% |
| Joe Blackburn | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 91.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.