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📊 Prediction Accuracy
75.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont1.11+2.49vs Predicted
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2Salve Regina University1.74+0.46vs Predicted
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3Bates College-0.52+3.63vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.08+1.74vs Predicted
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5Tufts University0.99-1.34vs Predicted
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6Yale University-0.11-0.20vs Predicted
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7McGill University0.73-2.91vs Predicted
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8Wesleyan University-0.66-1.14vs Predicted
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9Middlebury College-2.09+0.42vs Predicted
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10Fairfield University-1.40-1.76vs Predicted
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11Amherst College-2.30-1.21vs Predicted
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12University of Connecticut-4.98-0.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.49University of Vermont1.110.2%1st Place
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2.46Salve Regina University1.740.3%1st Place
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6.63Bates College-0.520.0%1st Place
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5.74Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.080.0%1st Place
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3.66Tufts University0.990.2%1st Place
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5.8Yale University-0.110.1%1st Place
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4.09McGill University0.730.1%1st Place
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6.86Wesleyan University-0.660.0%1st Place
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9.42Middlebury College-2.090.0%1st Place
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8.24Fairfield University-1.400.0%1st Place
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9.79Amherst College-2.300.0%1st Place
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11.82University of Connecticut-4.980.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Hamilton | 18.2% | 17.1% | 17.8% | 17.9% | 13.1% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nils Tullberg | 34.0% | 25.9% | 18.0% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Daniell | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 16.4% | 18.2% | 14.8% | 8.0% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| David Perez | 4.4% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 16.0% | 14.5% | 12.3% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Elena Gonick | 15.8% | 18.7% | 15.7% | 16.6% | 14.9% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Asher | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 15.6% | 16.5% | 14.6% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Noah Ferrarotto | 13.8% | 12.7% | 15.2% | 16.0% | 15.2% | 13.9% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ned Herrington | 2.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 14.7% | 16.3% | 17.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Grace Hering | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 8.8% | 15.0% | 28.3% | 32.0% | 2.5% |
| John Stalzer | 1.2% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 14.4% | 21.9% | 21.6% | 12.6% | 0.4% |
| Katherine Boback | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 6.5% | 10.6% | 23.3% | 44.5% | 4.8% |
| Joe Blackburn | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 4.4% | 92.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.