Race 10B

fairfield-cup

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Nils Tullberg 34.3% 25.9% 18.6% 11.0% 6.2% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Noah Ferrarotto 11.7% 14.0% 17.4% 16.8% 14.6% 11.8% 8.4% 4.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Ryan Hamilton 19.1% 18.3% 19.1% 15.3% 13.8% 8.6% 4.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ned Herrington 2.1% 4.6% 3.6% 6.6% 9.1% 15.0% 16.3% 22.0% 14.6% 5.8% 0.3% 0.0%
Elena Gonick 16.0% 17.7% 17.5% 18.0% 12.8% 8.5% 6.3% 2.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grace Hering 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 1.5% 1.9% 3.7% 6.2% 9.8% 28.9% 39.8% 5.6% 0.0%
David Perez 6.0% 7.6% 7.9% 10.8% 13.0% 16.8% 15.8% 14.5% 6.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacob Asher 6.2% 6.4% 8.8% 9.5% 13.5% 15.3% 19.1% 12.7% 6.9% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Owen Daniell 2.9% 3.7% 4.9% 8.1% 11.8% 15.0% 18.6% 21.0% 10.9% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sarah Bowman 0.6% 0.7% 1.2% 2.2% 3.0% 2.7% 3.8% 10.2% 27.3% 42.5% 5.6% 0.2%
Nicolas Jorden 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 1.3% 1.9% 30.0% 65.4%
Joe Blackburn 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 2.0% 4.1% 58.3% 34.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.