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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pittsburgh0.14+7.32vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+0.76vs Predicted
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3Princeton University2.35+0.39vs Predicted
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4SUNY Stony Brook1.41+1.43vs Predicted
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5Villanova University0.91+1.48vs Predicted
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6Virginia Tech0.59+1.32vs Predicted
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7Washington College2.11-3.17vs Predicted
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8Virginia Tech0.59-0.68vs Predicted
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9University of Maryland0.80-2.18vs Predicted
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10Drexel University0.58-2.55vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester0.95-4.59vs Predicted
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12William and Mary0.21-3.89vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University-3.01-1.74vs Predicted
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15U. S. Military Academy-3.28-2.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.32University of Pittsburgh0.140.0%1st Place
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2.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.3%1st Place
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3.39Princeton University2.350.2%1st Place
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5.43SUNY Stony Brook1.410.1%1st Place
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6.48Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
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7.32Virginia Tech0.590.0%1st Place
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3.83Washington College2.110.2%1st Place
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7.32Virginia Tech0.590.0%1st Place
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6.82University of Maryland0.800.0%1st Place
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7.45Drexel University0.580.0%1st Place
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6.41University of Rochester0.950.1%1st Place
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8.11William and Mary0.210.0%1st Place
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12.26Syracuse University-3.010.0%1st Place
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12.42U. S. Military Academy-3.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanley Galloway | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 12.7% | 17.0% | 24.0% | 3.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Munger | 30.9% | 22.6% | 17.8% | 12.5% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 19.8% | 20.5% | 17.0% | 16.3% | 11.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 7.4% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Ward | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 6.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Magno | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 14.6% | 13.5% | 12.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 16.6% | 18.2% | 15.4% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Magno | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 14.6% | 13.5% | 12.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Daitch | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeline DelVescovo | 3.1% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 12.3% | 13.8% | 14.4% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott McKinney | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 2.0% | 2.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 13.6% | 18.1% | 19.9% | 2.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| William Harrington | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 50.4% | 43.5% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Lamb | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 39.1% | 56.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.