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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Drexel University1.35+3.34vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.60+0.11vs Predicted
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3William and Mary0.68+3.17vs Predicted
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4Princeton University0.75+2.01vs Predicted
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5Villanova University0.11+2.98vs Predicted
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6Virginia Tech0.47+0.87vs Predicted
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7Washington College0.80-1.44vs Predicted
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8Virginia Tech0.47-1.13vs Predicted
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9University of Maryland-0.35+0.13vs Predicted
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10University of Pittsburgh-0.45-0.40vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester-0.18-2.17vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University-0.81-1.41vs Predicted
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13U. S. Military Academy-1.19-1.54vs Predicted
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14Columbia University-0.05-5.77vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.03-6.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.34Drexel University1.350.1%1st Place
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2.11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.600.4%1st Place
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6.17William and Mary0.680.1%1st Place
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6.01Princeton University0.750.1%1st Place
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7.98Villanova University0.110.0%1st Place
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6.87Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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5.56Washington College0.800.1%1st Place
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6.87Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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9.13University of Maryland-0.350.0%1st Place
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9.6University of Pittsburgh-0.450.0%1st Place
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8.83University of Rochester-0.180.0%1st Place
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10.59Syracuse University-0.810.0%1st Place
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11.46U. S. Military Academy-1.190.0%1st Place
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8.23Columbia University-0.050.0%1st Place
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8.13SUNY Stony Brook-0.030.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toby Sullivan | 12.7% | 16.8% | 16.7% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Kilvert | 42.7% | 28.7% | 14.8% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Whisner | 6.2% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 6.2% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Brian Tiernan | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 4.7% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 8.7% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 4.7% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Jones | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 12.6% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 0.0% |
| Geoffrey Wells | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| Bartholomew Skala | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Smith | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 19.1% | 21.6% | 0.0% |
| Henry Jensen | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 18.2% | 35.4% | 0.0% |
| Sean Lee | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 2.6% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.