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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.60+1.17vs Predicted
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2Drexel University1.35+2.23vs Predicted
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3William and Mary0.68+3.11vs Predicted
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4SUNY Stony Brook-0.03+4.36vs Predicted
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5Villanova University0.11+2.95vs Predicted
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6Princeton University0.75+0.09vs Predicted
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7University of Pittsburgh-0.45+2.27vs Predicted
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8Virginia Tech0.47-1.26vs Predicted
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9Washington College0.80-3.14vs Predicted
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10U. S. Military Academy-1.19+1.52vs Predicted
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11University of Maryland-0.35-1.71vs Predicted
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12Columbia University-0.05-3.62vs Predicted
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13Virginia Tech0.47-6.26vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University-0.81-3.58vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester-0.18-6.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.600.4%1st Place
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4.23Drexel University1.350.1%1st Place
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6.11William and Mary0.680.1%1st Place
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8.36SUNY Stony Brook-0.030.0%1st Place
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7.95Villanova University0.110.0%1st Place
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6.09Princeton University0.750.1%1st Place
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9.27University of Pittsburgh-0.450.0%1st Place
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6.74Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
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5.86Washington College0.800.1%1st Place
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11.52U. S. Military Academy-1.190.0%1st Place
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9.29University of Maryland-0.350.0%1st Place
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8.38Columbia University-0.050.0%1st Place
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6.74Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
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10.42Syracuse University-0.810.0%1st Place
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8.6University of Rochester-0.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Kilvert | 44.8% | 24.3% | 14.2% | 8.9% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Toby Sullivan | 12.9% | 17.6% | 16.7% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Whisner | 6.4% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 2.2% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| Brian Tiernan | 2.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 6.6% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Geoffrey Wells | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 13.5% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 5.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 6.5% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Henry Jensen | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 17.6% | 36.8% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Jones | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 0.0% |
| Sean Lee | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 5.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Smith | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 18.2% | 20.1% | 0.0% |
| Bartholomew Skala | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.