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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.60+1.19vs Predicted
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2Drexel University1.35+2.21vs Predicted
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3William and Mary0.68+3.07vs Predicted
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4Princeton University0.75+1.93vs Predicted
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5Villanova University0.11+2.90vs Predicted
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6Virginia Tech0.47+0.82vs Predicted
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7Washington College0.80-1.51vs Predicted
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8Virginia Tech0.47-1.18vs Predicted
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9University of Maryland-0.35+0.09vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook-0.03-1.72vs Predicted
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11University of Pittsburgh-0.62-0.96vs Predicted
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12U. S. Military Academy-1.19-0.53vs Predicted
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13University of Rochester-0.31-3.92vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University-0.81-3.67vs Predicted
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15Columbia University-0.05-6.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.600.4%1st Place
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4.21Drexel University1.350.1%1st Place
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6.07William and Mary0.680.1%1st Place
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5.93Princeton University0.750.1%1st Place
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7.9Villanova University0.110.0%1st Place
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6.82Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
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5.49Washington College0.800.1%1st Place
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6.82Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
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9.09University of Maryland-0.350.0%1st Place
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8.28SUNY Stony Brook-0.030.0%1st Place
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10.04University of Pittsburgh-0.620.0%1st Place
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11.47U. S. Military Academy-1.190.0%1st Place
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9.08University of Rochester-0.310.0%1st Place
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10.33Syracuse University-0.810.0%1st Place
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8.1Columbia University-0.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Kilvert | 43.7% | 25.5% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Toby Sullivan | 12.9% | 17.9% | 15.4% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Whisner | 6.4% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 12.7% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 5.1% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Brian Tiernan | 2.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 8.7% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Jones | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| Bryce Merrill | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 14.4% | 15.7% | 0.0% |
| Henry Jensen | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 17.6% | 36.1% | 0.0% |
| Sean Kilcullen | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Smith | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 18.8% | 18.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Lee | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.