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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Virginia Tech0.47+5.68vs Predicted
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2Columbia University-0.05+6.06vs Predicted
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3Drexel University1.35+1.29vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.60-1.90vs Predicted
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5William and Mary0.68+1.25vs Predicted
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6Princeton University0.75-0.01vs Predicted
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7Villanova University0.11+0.52vs Predicted
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8Washington College0.80-2.23vs Predicted
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9University of Rochester-0.31+0.14vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook-0.03-1.66vs Predicted
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11University of Pittsburgh-0.62-0.97vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech0.47-5.32vs Predicted
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13U. S. Military Academy-1.19-1.60vs Predicted
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14University of Maryland-0.35-4.90vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-0.81-4.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.68Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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8.06Columbia University-0.050.0%1st Place
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4.29Drexel University1.350.1%1st Place
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2.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.600.4%1st Place
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6.25William and Mary0.680.0%1st Place
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5.99Princeton University0.750.1%1st Place
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7.52Villanova University0.110.0%1st Place
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5.77Washington College0.800.1%1st Place
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9.14University of Rochester-0.310.0%1st Place
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8.34SUNY Stony Brook-0.030.0%1st Place
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10.03University of Pittsburgh-0.620.0%1st Place
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6.68Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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11.4U. S. Military Academy-1.190.0%1st Place
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9.1University of Maryland-0.350.0%1st Place
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10.34Syracuse University-0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reid Shanabrook | 4.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Sean Lee | 3.1% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| Toby Sullivan | 13.9% | 16.2% | 13.6% | 14.4% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Kilvert | 44.9% | 24.9% | 15.9% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Whisner | 4.4% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 7.2% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Brian Tiernan | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 7.0% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sean Kilcullen | 2.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| Bryce Merrill | 1.2% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 14.2% | 16.1% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 4.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Henry Jensen | 0.6% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 18.2% | 34.6% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Jones | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Smith | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 19.5% | 17.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.