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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.60+1.14vs Predicted
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2Virginia Tech0.47+4.38vs Predicted
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3Princeton University0.75+2.78vs Predicted
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4Drexel University1.35+0.31vs Predicted
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5William and Mary0.68+1.14vs Predicted
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6University of Pittsburgh-0.45+3.46vs Predicted
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7SUNY Stony Brook-0.03+0.80vs Predicted
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8Columbia University-0.05+0.08vs Predicted
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9University of Rochester-1.05+1.93vs Predicted
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10Villanova University0.11-2.23vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.80-5.21vs Predicted
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12U. S. Military Academy-1.19-0.75vs Predicted
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13University of Maryland-0.35-4.01vs Predicted
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14Virginia Tech0.47-7.62vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-0.81-4.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.600.5%1st Place
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6.38Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
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5.78Princeton University0.750.1%1st Place
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4.31Drexel University1.350.1%1st Place
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6.14William and Mary0.680.0%1st Place
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9.46University of Pittsburgh-0.450.0%1st Place
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7.8SUNY Stony Brook-0.030.0%1st Place
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8.08Columbia University-0.050.0%1st Place
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10.93University of Rochester-1.050.0%1st Place
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7.77Villanova University0.110.0%1st Place
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5.79Washington College0.800.1%1st Place
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11.25U. S. Military Academy-1.190.0%1st Place
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8.99University of Maryland-0.350.0%1st Place
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6.38Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
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10.19Syracuse University-0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Kilvert | 47.0% | 21.7% | 14.9% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 5.0% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 7.7% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Toby Sullivan | 11.9% | 16.1% | 15.6% | 15.4% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Whisner | 4.9% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Geoffrey Wells | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 3.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| Sean Lee | 2.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Eric Elias | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 15.3% | 18.1% | 24.4% | 0.0% |
| Brian Tiernan | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 6.4% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Henry Jensen | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 11.9% | 19.8% | 29.8% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Jones | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 5.0% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Smith | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 17.5% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.