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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.60+1.10vs Predicted
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2Washington College0.80+3.36vs Predicted
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3Virginia Tech0.47+3.44vs Predicted
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4William and Mary0.68+1.92vs Predicted
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5Drexel University1.35-0.70vs Predicted
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6Villanova University0.11+1.63vs Predicted
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7Princeton University0.75-1.60vs Predicted
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8Columbia University-0.05-0.07vs Predicted
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9University of Maryland-0.35-0.09vs Predicted
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10University of Rochester-1.05+0.83vs Predicted
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11University of Pittsburgh-0.62-1.34vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-0.55-2.51vs Predicted
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13U. S. Military Academy-1.19-1.99vs Predicted
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14Virginia Tech0.47-7.56vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-0.81-4.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.600.5%1st Place
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5.36Washington College0.800.1%1st Place
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6.44Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
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5.92William and Mary0.680.0%1st Place
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4.3Drexel University1.350.1%1st Place
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7.63Villanova University0.110.0%1st Place
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5.4Princeton University0.750.1%1st Place
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7.93Columbia University-0.050.0%1st Place
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8.91University of Maryland-0.350.0%1st Place
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10.83University of Rochester-1.050.0%1st Place
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9.66University of Pittsburgh-0.620.0%1st Place
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9.49SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
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11.01U. S. Military Academy-1.190.0%1st Place
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6.44Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
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10.02Syracuse University-0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Kilvert | 46.8% | 22.9% | 15.3% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 7.1% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 5.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Whisner | 4.5% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 13.0% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Toby Sullivan | 10.6% | 15.7% | 17.8% | 15.3% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Tiernan | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 13.9% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sean Lee | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Jones | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| Eric Elias | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 18.2% | 23.6% | 0.0% |
| Bryce Merrill | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 13.5% | 11.2% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Mislinski | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 0.0% |
| Henry Jensen | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 14.3% | 15.6% | 28.1% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 5.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Smith | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 16.8% | 14.5% | 13.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.