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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Virginia Tech0.47+5.42vs Predicted
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2Drexel University1.35+2.13vs Predicted
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3Columbia University-0.05+4.96vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.60-1.95vs Predicted
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5William and Mary0.68+1.00vs Predicted
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6Washington College0.80-0.35vs Predicted
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7Villanova University0.11+0.22vs Predicted
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8University of Pittsburgh-0.62+1.54vs Predicted
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9University of Maryland-0.35-0.10vs Predicted
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10U. S. Military Academy-1.19+1.20vs Predicted
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11Princeton University0.75-5.21vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-0.55-2.54vs Predicted
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13University of Rochester-1.05-2.31vs Predicted
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14Virginia Tech0.47-7.58vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-0.81-4.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.42Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
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4.13Drexel University1.350.1%1st Place
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7.96Columbia University-0.050.0%1st Place
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2.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.600.5%1st Place
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6.0William and Mary0.680.0%1st Place
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5.65Washington College0.800.1%1st Place
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7.22Villanova University0.110.0%1st Place
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9.54University of Pittsburgh-0.620.0%1st Place
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8.9University of Maryland-0.350.0%1st Place
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11.2U. S. Military Academy-1.190.0%1st Place
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5.79Princeton University0.750.1%1st Place
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9.46SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
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10.69University of Rochester-1.050.0%1st Place
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6.42Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
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10.01Syracuse University-0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reid Shanabrook | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Toby Sullivan | 13.7% | 15.5% | 19.0% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sean Lee | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Charles Kilvert | 45.0% | 28.4% | 13.3% | 8.2% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Whisner | 4.7% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 7.3% | 7.4% | 11.8% | 13.5% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Tiernan | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Bryce Merrill | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 13.9% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Jones | 2.0% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| Henry Jensen | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 16.8% | 30.8% | 0.0% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 7.4% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Mislinski | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 0.0% |
| Eric Elias | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 16.7% | 22.6% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Smith | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 14.8% | 16.6% | 12.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.