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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Drexel University1.35+3.41vs Predicted
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2Princeton University0.75+3.76vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.60-0.88vs Predicted
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4William and Mary0.68+2.19vs Predicted
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5Virginia Tech0.47+1.92vs Predicted
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6Villanova University0.11+1.99vs Predicted
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7Columbia University-0.05+1.10vs Predicted
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8U. S. Military Academy-1.19+3.32vs Predicted
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9Washington College0.80-3.13vs Predicted
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10University of Rochester-0.18-1.14vs Predicted
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11University of Maryland-0.35-1.72vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-0.03-3.68vs Predicted
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13Virginia Tech0.47-6.08vs Predicted
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14University of Pittsburgh-0.45-4.55vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-0.81-4.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.41Drexel University1.350.1%1st Place
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5.76Princeton University0.750.1%1st Place
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2.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.600.5%1st Place
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6.19William and Mary0.680.1%1st Place
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6.92Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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7.99Villanova University0.110.0%1st Place
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8.1Columbia University-0.050.0%1st Place
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11.32U. S. Military Academy-1.190.0%1st Place
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5.87Washington College0.800.1%1st Place
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8.86University of Rochester-0.180.0%1st Place
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9.28University of Maryland-0.350.0%1st Place
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8.32SUNY Stony Brook-0.030.0%1st Place
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6.92Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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9.45University of Pittsburgh-0.450.0%1st Place
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10.4Syracuse University-0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toby Sullivan | 11.5% | 16.3% | 17.6% | 13.6% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 7.1% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Charles Kilvert | 46.0% | 24.4% | 13.8% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Whisner | 5.8% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 4.7% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Brian Tiernan | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| Sean Lee | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Jensen | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 15.2% | 38.0% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 7.1% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Bartholomew Skala | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Jones | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 2.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 4.7% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Geoffrey Wells | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 10.4% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Smith | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 13.2% | 19.6% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.