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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.60+1.19vs Predicted
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2Drexel University1.35+2.24vs Predicted
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3Virginia Tech0.47+3.74vs Predicted
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4William and Mary0.68+2.16vs Predicted
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5Princeton University0.75+1.05vs Predicted
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6University of Rochester-0.18+2.86vs Predicted
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7Columbia University-0.05+1.09vs Predicted
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8Washington College0.80-2.19vs Predicted
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9University of Maryland-0.35+0.29vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech0.47-3.26vs Predicted
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11Villanova University0.11-3.09vs Predicted
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12U. S. Military Academy-1.19-0.49vs Predicted
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13University of Pittsburgh-0.45-3.43vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University-0.81-3.59vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.03-6.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.600.4%1st Place
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4.24Drexel University1.350.1%1st Place
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6.74Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
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6.16William and Mary0.680.0%1st Place
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6.05Princeton University0.750.1%1st Place
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8.86University of Rochester-0.180.0%1st Place
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8.09Columbia University-0.050.0%1st Place
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5.81Washington College0.800.1%1st Place
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9.29University of Maryland-0.350.0%1st Place
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6.74Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
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7.91Villanova University0.110.0%1st Place
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11.51U. S. Military Academy-1.190.0%1st Place
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9.57University of Pittsburgh-0.450.0%1st Place
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10.41Syracuse University-0.810.0%1st Place
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8.18SUNY Stony Brook-0.030.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Kilvert | 44.5% | 24.3% | 14.0% | 9.6% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Toby Sullivan | 13.2% | 16.9% | 15.4% | 13.5% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Whisner | 4.6% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 5.5% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Bartholomew Skala | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| Sean Lee | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 7.5% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Jones | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Brian Tiernan | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Henry Jensen | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 18.6% | 36.6% | 0.0% |
| Geoffrey Wells | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Smith | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 16.4% | 21.2% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.