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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.60+1.18vs Predicted
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2Virginia Tech0.47+4.55vs Predicted
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3Princeton University0.75+2.92vs Predicted
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4Drexel University1.35+0.42vs Predicted
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5William and Mary0.68+1.29vs Predicted
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6Columbia University-0.05+2.47vs Predicted
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7Washington College0.80-1.47vs Predicted
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8Villanova University0.11-0.19vs Predicted
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9University of Rochester-0.18-0.16vs Predicted
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10University of Maryland-0.35-0.61vs Predicted
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11University of Pittsburgh-0.45-1.43vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech0.47-5.45vs Predicted
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13U. S. Military Academy-1.19-1.57vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.03-5.81vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-0.81-4.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.600.5%1st Place
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6.55Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
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5.92Princeton University0.750.1%1st Place
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4.42Drexel University1.350.1%1st Place
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6.29William and Mary0.680.0%1st Place
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8.47Columbia University-0.050.0%1st Place
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5.53Washington College0.800.1%1st Place
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7.81Villanova University0.110.0%1st Place
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8.84University of Rochester-0.180.0%1st Place
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9.39University of Maryland-0.350.0%1st Place
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9.57University of Pittsburgh-0.450.0%1st Place
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6.55Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
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11.43U. S. Military Academy-1.190.0%1st Place
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8.19SUNY Stony Brook-0.030.0%1st Place
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10.41Syracuse University-0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Kilvert | 45.1% | 23.0% | 14.9% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 5.0% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 7.3% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Toby Sullivan | 11.1% | 16.0% | 15.1% | 14.2% | 14.0% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Whisner | 4.8% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Sean Lee | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 8.4% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 13.1% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Brian Tiernan | 3.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Bartholomew Skala | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Jones | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| Geoffrey Wells | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 5.0% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Jensen | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 17.2% | 35.5% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Smith | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 13.8% | 19.8% | 18.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.