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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at San Diego1.57+1.33vs Predicted
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2University of California at Irvine-1.27+9.21vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego-0.58+5.11vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles0.29+0.93vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego-1.37+6.72vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara-0.56+2.26vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-2.52+9.24vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley-0.69+0.49vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University-2.34+6.75vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.57+2.67vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-1.46+0.97vs Predicted
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12-1.26-0.72vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay-1.39-1.11vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz-0.99-4.11vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-1.95-0.93vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-2.53+0.48vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.71-3.83vs Predicted
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18University of California at Santa Cruz-1.24-6.60vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.02-8.89vs Predicted
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20University of California at Irvine-1.37-8.31vs Predicted
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21University of California at Davis-0.93-11.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.33University of California at San Diego1.570.4%1st Place
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11.21University of California at Irvine-1.270.0%1st Place
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8.11University of California at San Diego-0.580.0%1st Place
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4.93University of California at Los Angeles0.290.1%1st Place
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11.72University of California at San Diego-1.370.0%1st Place
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8.26University of California at Santa Barbara-0.560.0%1st Place
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16.24University of California at San Diego-2.520.0%1st Place
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8.49University of California at Berkeley-0.690.1%1st Place
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15.75Arizona State University-2.340.0%1st Place
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12.67Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.570.0%1st Place
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11.97University of California at Los Angeles-1.460.0%1st Place
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11.28-1.260.0%1st Place
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11.89California State University Monterey Bay-1.390.0%1st Place
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9.89University of California at Santa Cruz-0.990.0%1st Place
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14.07University of California at Los Angeles-1.950.0%1st Place
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16.48Arizona State University-2.530.0%1st Place
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13.17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.710.0%1st Place
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11.4University of California at Santa Cruz-1.240.0%1st Place
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10.11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.020.0%1st Place
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11.69University of California at Irvine-1.370.0%1st Place
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9.33University of California at Davis-0.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nigel Lipps | 40.5% | 25.1% | 15.3% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hali Aniol | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
| Tobie Bloom | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Mary Jane Howland | 10.7% | 13.6% | 15.2% | 14.0% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blair Caccam | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.3% |
| Sophia Jacobs | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Elizaveta Pertseva | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 15.0% | 24.9% |
| Francesco Olivero | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Mary Spearman | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 15.3% | 17.3% |
| Chris Haugen | 1.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 4.0% |
| Xinyu Zhou | 2.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.8% |
| Macy Rowe | 1.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% |
| Jason Gronich | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.7% |
| Ryan Martin | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Deven Douglas | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 8.2% |
| Katherine Pearson | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 16.2% | 24.3% |
| Conor Kuzmack | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 4.2% |
| Jeremy Burke | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Dashel Peters | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Neil Gompf | 1.7% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| Jonah Brees | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.