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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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2University of California at Los Angeles0.29+2.73vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego1.57-0.86vs Predicted
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4University of California at Davis-0.93+5.23vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine-1.27+5.60vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.02+3.47vs Predicted
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7-1.26+3.68vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-2.13+6.56vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay-1.39+1.92vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-0.58-2.44vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara-0.56-3.43vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-1.24-1.49vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-1.46-1.30vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz-0.99-4.33vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-2.53+0.69vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-1.37-4.97vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.71-4.53vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-1.95-4.62vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.57-7.02vs Predicted
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20Arizona State University-2.34-5.08vs Predicted
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21University of California at Irvine-1.37-9.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.73University of California at Los Angeles0.290.1%1st Place
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2.14University of California at San Diego1.570.4%1st Place
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9.23University of California at Davis-0.930.0%1st Place
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10.6University of California at Irvine-1.270.0%1st Place
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9.47Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.020.0%1st Place
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10.68-1.260.0%1st Place
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14.56University of California at San Diego-2.130.0%1st Place
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10.92California State University Monterey Bay-1.390.0%1st Place
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7.56University of California at San Diego-0.580.1%1st Place
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7.57University of California at Santa Barbara-0.560.0%1st Place
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10.51University of California at Santa Cruz-1.240.0%1st Place
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11.7University of California at Los Angeles-1.460.0%1st Place
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9.67University of California at Santa Cruz-0.990.0%1st Place
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15.69Arizona State University-2.530.0%1st Place
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11.03University of California at San Diego-1.370.0%1st Place
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12.47Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.710.0%1st Place
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13.38University of California at Los Angeles-1.950.0%1st Place
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11.98Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.570.0%1st Place
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14.92Arizona State University-2.340.0%1st Place
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11.2University of California at Irvine-1.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Jane Howland | 12.6% | 15.1% | 15.1% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nigel Lipps | 43.9% | 25.5% | 15.5% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonah Brees | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Hali Aniol | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Dashel Peters | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Macy Rowe | 1.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.2% |
| Stephen Burt | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 15.4% |
| Jason Gronich | 2.1% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.3% |
| Tobie Bloom | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Jacobs | 4.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Jeremy Burke | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Xinyu Zhou | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.1% |
| Ryan Martin | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% |
| Katherine Pearson | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 14.9% | 27.7% |
| Blair Caccam | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.4% |
| Conor Kuzmack | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% |
| Deven Douglas | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.9% |
| Chris Haugen | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 3.7% |
| Mary Spearman | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 10.9% | 14.6% | 18.9% |
| Neil Gompf | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.