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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
27
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+5.56vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara3.19+2.10vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.71+2.38vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley1.66+5.01vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara2.91-0.26vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.68-0.58vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara2.73-1.78vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis0.41+6.18vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.50+4.84vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay-0.62+8.97vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley0.50+2.83vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley1.36-1.58vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz1.15-1.91vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-4.09vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-0.15+2.00vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-0.10+0.81vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles0.52-3.10vs Predicted
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18California State University Monterey Bay-0.62+0.97vs Predicted
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19University of California at Berkeley0.73-6.07vs Predicted
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20San Diego State University-0.64-0.89vs Predicted
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21San Diego State University-0.29-3.70vs Predicted
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22California State University Channel Islands-0.97-1.44vs Predicted
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23Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.30-1.48vs Predicted
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24University of California at Irvine-0.36-6.10vs Predicted
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25University of California at San Diego-0.75-5.67vs Predicted
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26Arizona State University-1.13-4.85vs Predicted
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27San Diego State University-0.99-6.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.56University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.1%1st Place
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4.1University of California at Santa Barbara3.190.2%1st Place
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5.38University of California at Santa Barbara2.710.1%1st Place
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9.01University of California at Berkeley1.660.0%1st Place
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4.74University of California at Santa Barbara2.910.2%1st Place
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5.42University of California at Santa Barbara2.680.1%1st Place
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5.22University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.1%1st Place
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14.18University of California at Davis0.410.0%1st Place
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13.84University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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18.97California State University Monterey Bay-0.620.0%1st Place
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13.83University of California at Berkeley0.500.0%1st Place
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10.42University of California at Berkeley1.360.0%1st Place
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11.09University of California at Santa Cruz1.150.0%1st Place
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9.91Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.0%1st Place
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17.0University of California at San Diego-0.150.0%1st Place
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16.81University of California at Los Angeles-0.100.0%1st Place
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13.9University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
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18.97California State University Monterey Bay-0.620.0%1st Place
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12.93University of California at Berkeley0.730.0%1st Place
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19.11San Diego State University-0.640.0%1st Place
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17.3San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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20.56California State University Channel Islands-0.970.0%1st Place
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21.52Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.300.0%1st Place
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17.9University of California at Irvine-0.360.0%1st Place
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19.33University of California at San Diego-0.750.0%1st Place
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21.15Arizona State University-1.130.0%1st Place
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20.81San Diego State University-0.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Kayda | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Quinn Wilson | 19.2% | 14.1% | 15.5% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Eastwood | 11.2% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Hayes | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Long | 15.3% | 13.8% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sidney Gathrid | 10.3% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Pierce | 12.7% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Samuels | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caila Devlin | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| Augustus Doricko | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ciara Dorsay | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aitor Iriso | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Hood | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly Rowland | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Maddy Kuhn | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Abraham Dearden | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Caila Devlin | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| Kingsley Ehrich | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Marra | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| Erik Hallback | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Gates | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kelly | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 25.7% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Tuck | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Canyon Breyer | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Harris | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 13.4% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Megan McGlothlin | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 15.7% | 13.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.