Race 3A

dark-night

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Sarah Alix 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.8% 2.9% 3.2% 5.5% 6.6% 9.3% 15.2% 24.1% 25.7%
Austen Freda 6.2% 6.8% 6.3% 8.9% 8.8% 10.4% 11.2% 10.6% 8.7% 11.0% 7.0% 3.4% 0.7%
Patrick Mulcahy 4.5% 5.5% 5.9% 7.4% 9.3% 7.5% 9.3% 11.8% 12.7% 10.7% 9.4% 4.1% 1.9%
Alex Fasolo 13.3% 13.2% 14.7% 10.6% 12.6% 8.6% 11.1% 6.6% 4.9% 2.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Caleb Niles 6.6% 4.6% 7.3% 8.4% 7.4% 9.1% 9.0% 9.8% 13.2% 11.9% 7.6% 3.6% 1.5%
Gabriel Hannon 7.1% 6.0% 7.1% 8.6% 9.3% 10.0% 9.7% 11.7% 9.5% 8.7% 7.3% 4.0% 1.0%
Aryaman Dutta 4.0% 4.2% 4.3% 3.9% 5.6% 6.6% 7.7% 7.9% 11.6% 13.9% 13.8% 10.8% 5.7%
Hannah Steadman 22.2% 20.0% 14.8% 13.9% 11.2% 8.2% 4.4% 3.2% 1.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Ansgar Jordan 14.8% 15.0% 14.9% 11.5% 10.5% 10.7% 8.2% 6.7% 4.6% 1.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Alec Bodenski 0.7% 1.8% 1.6% 2.0% 3.2% 2.1% 2.3% 4.0% 5.5% 9.8% 14.4% 22.1% 30.5%
Kyle Dochoda 11.8% 14.4% 12.9% 13.5% 9.8% 11.8% 10.5% 5.4% 4.9% 2.9% 1.1% 1.0% 0.0%
Charles Honke 6.1% 6.1% 7.5% 8.6% 8.1% 9.8% 10.8% 12.2% 10.7% 8.4% 7.3% 3.3% 1.1%
John Holt 1.0% 1.1% 1.4% 1.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.6% 4.6% 5.9% 8.3% 14.6% 22.7% 31.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.