Race 1B

dark-night

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Santiago Hirschmann 10.9% 9.3% 10.8% 11.8% 11.9% 10.5% 11.8% 10.3% 6.5% 3.9% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
Maria Brush 12.3% 13.1% 13.3% 12.7% 14.3% 11.1% 8.7% 6.9% 4.6% 2.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Elena Gonick 15.3% 14.3% 12.8% 12.3% 11.4% 12.4% 9.8% 6.4% 3.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Jed Bell 18.5% 16.9% 14.7% 14.4% 11.4% 10.2% 6.7% 3.6% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Niall Sheridan 6.2% 6.7% 7.3% 8.2% 7.9% 9.3% 11.5% 12.8% 10.5% 11.7% 5.6% 2.1% 0.2%
Spencer Dellenbaugh 9.3% 10.0% 11.1% 11.1% 10.5% 12.6% 10.7% 10.0% 6.8% 5.3% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Emma Montgomery 5.4% 4.6% 6.2% 7.0% 6.0% 7.7% 10.9% 12.4% 14.2% 11.8% 9.2% 3.7% 0.9%
Dane Phippen 1.4% 2.6% 2.7% 2.3% 3.9% 3.2% 5.0% 8.3% 11.2% 14.9% 18.5% 21.5% 4.5%
Michael Sabourin 16.1% 16.6% 14.1% 12.1% 12.2% 9.3% 8.6% 5.7% 3.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Seth Pardi 1.9% 1.9% 3.7% 2.1% 3.2% 4.3% 5.0% 8.3% 12.3% 14.5% 17.7% 18.8% 6.3%
Paige Tyler 1.5% 1.6% 1.3% 3.0% 4.0% 4.6% 5.9% 6.8% 12.5% 14.9% 19.5% 18.3% 6.1%
Megan Blagden 1.0% 1.9% 1.9% 2.7% 2.7% 4.5% 4.2% 7.4% 9.9% 14.4% 18.3% 22.8% 8.3%
Jesus Esgueva 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 1.2% 1.1% 2.4% 3.1% 4.9% 11.7% 73.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.