Race 3B

dark-night

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Alexander Kostas 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 1.9% 1.4% 2.0% 1.5% 3.5% 6.4% 11.5% 22.3% 33.8% 13.1%
Ryutaro Sochi 12.4% 14.0% 12.7% 11.5% 11.9% 11.2% 9.9% 6.6% 5.9% 2.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Talia Toland 18.1% 15.0% 13.5% 13.6% 11.6% 10.8% 8.0% 4.6% 3.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Annika Fedde 6.7% 9.8% 10.5% 9.3% 10.8% 9.5% 12.1% 12.8% 9.6% 6.2% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Santiago Hirschmann 8.3% 9.1% 9.4% 8.8% 9.6% 11.3% 10.4% 12.3% 11.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.8% 0.0%
Spencer Dellenbaugh 7.5% 8.1% 7.4% 10.2% 8.3% 9.8% 12.4% 10.4% 11.8% 9.5% 3.7% 0.9% 0.0%
Emma Montgomery 4.0% 3.8% 4.6% 5.5% 5.6% 6.6% 6.8% 10.6% 15.3% 19.0% 11.6% 5.3% 1.3%
Jed Bell 15.6% 13.8% 12.5% 11.8% 12.0% 11.6% 9.6% 6.4% 5.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Jesus Esgueva 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 2.9% 6.5% 14.0% 70.8%
Elena Gonick 11.2% 12.2% 12.2% 12.0% 10.0% 10.2% 9.7% 10.0% 7.2% 3.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
Seth Pardi 1.2% 1.6% 2.2% 1.0% 3.6% 3.1% 4.4% 6.0% 11.3% 18.1% 22.1% 20.0% 5.4%
Megan Blagden 1.0% 1.0% 1.5% 1.6% 2.8% 2.1% 3.5% 6.2% 7.0% 15.9% 24.2% 24.0% 9.2%
Michael Sabourin 12.7% 10.6% 12.4% 12.7% 11.7% 11.5% 10.6% 9.2% 4.5% 3.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.