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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College2.45+8.99vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.43+4.16vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.42+3.21vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.71+4.67vs Predicted
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5Boston College3.01+2.54vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11+1.28vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.84+1.30vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.00-0.47vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.75-0.39vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.13+1.35vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.06-3.44vs Predicted
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12Boston University3.35-5.36vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University1.98-1.47vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.72-1.68vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont2.23-4.29vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island2.36-5.77vs Predicted
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17Middlebury College-0.14-0.08vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.40-4.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.99Connecticut College2.450.0%1st Place
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6.16Yale University3.430.1%1st Place
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6.21Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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8.67Tufts University2.710.1%1st Place
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7.54Boston College3.010.1%1st Place
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7.28U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.1%1st Place
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8.3Harvard University2.840.1%1st Place
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7.53Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.000.1%1st Place
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8.61Bowdoin College2.750.1%1st Place
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11.35Roger Williams University2.130.0%1st Place
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7.56Dartmouth College3.060.1%1st Place
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6.64Boston University3.350.1%1st Place
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11.53Salve Regina University1.980.0%1st Place
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12.32Northeastern University1.720.0%1st Place
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10.71University of Vermont2.230.0%1st Place
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10.23University of Rhode Island2.360.0%1st Place
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16.92Middlebury College-0.140.0%1st Place
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13.46Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.400.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Mckenna | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 0.7% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 9.0% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Connor Nelson | 9.7% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alex Fasolo | 5.8% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Jack DeNatale | 7.5% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Henry Burnes | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Ivan Shestopalov | 7.5% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Matt Safford | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Riley Read | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 2.5% |
| Audrey Giblin | 8.3% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Maia Agerup | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Alex Bowdler | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 2.9% |
| Matt Hersey | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 16.1% | 5.2% |
| Cameron Nash | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 1.7% |
| Parker Colantuono | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 1.6% |
| Nicholas Leshaw | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 8.8% | 74.2% |
| Christos Karplus | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 14.8% | 23.1% | 9.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.