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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.77+3.25vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.25+3.47vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.33+2.26vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.44+0.97vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.80-0.86vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.35-0.80vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.44+0.22vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University1.35-0.51vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.11-3.43vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.91-3.76vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia-0.55-0.44vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University-1.93-0.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.25Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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5.47Georgetown University2.250.1%1st Place
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5.26Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.330.1%1st Place
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4.97University of Pennsylvania2.440.1%1st Place
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4.14U. S. Naval Academy2.800.2%1st Place
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5.2George Washington University2.350.1%1st Place
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7.22Fordham University1.440.0%1st Place
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7.49Christopher Newport University1.350.0%1st Place
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5.57St. Mary's College of Maryland2.110.1%1st Place
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6.24Old Dominion University1.910.1%1st Place
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10.56University of Virginia-0.550.0%1st Place
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11.63Syracuse University-1.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabby Rizika | 16.2% | 13.9% | 13.3% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Marley Mais | 8.6% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Cox | 11.3% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Ava Esquier | 9.7% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 16.1% | 16.5% | 14.9% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Aitana Mendiguren | 11.6% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Payton Canavan | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 15.7% | 22.3% | 6.2% | 0.6% |
| Anna Patterson | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 16.6% | 23.2% | 9.8% | 0.5% |
| Jessica Bennett | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Groble | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 13.9% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Harrington | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 7.9% | 60.5% | 19.4% |
| Erin Splaine | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 15.9% | 79.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.