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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.25+4.51vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.44+2.88vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.33+2.25vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.77+0.18vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.35+0.17vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.91+0.27vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.11-1.29vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.80-3.93vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.44-1.73vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.35-2.52vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia-0.55-0.42vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University-1.93-0.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.51Georgetown University2.250.1%1st Place
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4.88University of Pennsylvania2.440.1%1st Place
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5.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.330.1%1st Place
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4.18Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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5.17George Washington University2.350.1%1st Place
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6.27Old Dominion University1.910.1%1st Place
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5.71St. Mary's College of Maryland2.110.1%1st Place
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4.07U. S. Naval Academy2.800.2%1st Place
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7.27Fordham University1.440.0%1st Place
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7.48Christopher Newport University1.350.0%1st Place
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10.58University of Virginia-0.550.0%1st Place
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11.63Syracuse University-1.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marley Mais | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Ava Esquier | 11.0% | 11.9% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Cox | 11.2% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Gabby Rizika | 15.4% | 17.1% | 13.6% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Aitana Mendiguren | 10.4% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Groble | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 13.1% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Jessica Bennett | 8.8% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 18.5% | 15.3% | 14.3% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Payton Canavan | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 16.1% | 19.6% | 6.8% | 0.1% |
| Anna Patterson | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 15.6% | 24.2% | 8.0% | 0.4% |
| Elizabeth Harrington | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 7.7% | 60.9% | 19.7% |
| Erin Splaine | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 15.6% | 79.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.