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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.44+5.80vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.50+4.58vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.88+5.95vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University2.10+3.72vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.07+2.92vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.51+0.37vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.71+2.32vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.08-0.17vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont1.11+2.43vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.27+3.97vs Predicted
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11Harvard University2.75-5.36vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.43-1.41vs Predicted
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13Boston College2.13-5.39vs Predicted
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14Yale University2.22-6.88vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University1.75-5.90vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida1.59-6.16vs Predicted
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17Bates College-1.81-0.02vs Predicted
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18Middlebury College-2.27-0.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.440.1%1st Place
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6.58Dartmouth College2.500.1%1st Place
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8.95Brown University1.880.0%1st Place
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7.72Northeastern University2.100.1%1st Place
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7.92University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
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6.37Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.510.1%1st Place
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9.32Tufts University1.710.0%1st Place
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7.83Tufts University2.080.1%1st Place
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11.43University of Vermont1.110.0%1st Place
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13.97Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.270.0%1st Place
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5.64Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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10.59Connecticut College1.430.0%1st Place
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7.61Boston College2.130.1%1st Place
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7.12Yale University2.220.1%1st Place
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9.1Roger Williams University1.750.0%1st Place
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9.84University of South Florida1.590.0%1st Place
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16.98Bates College-1.810.0%1st Place
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17.22Middlebury College-2.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Olmsted | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Paul | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Severin Gramm | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Clinton Hegarty | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Rosenberg | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Crew Fritsch | 9.3% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Annika Fedde | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Bryan Trammell | 6.7% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 12.4% | 16.3% | 13.4% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Alec Bodenski | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 7.6% | 12.3% | 38.8% | 13.8% | 1.0% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 12.8% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 14.6% | 9.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Graham Ness | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Catherine "B" Lindsay | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Chase Reynolds | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Hanley | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Peter Dunbar | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 2.7% | 6.3% | 46.6% | 40.5% |
| Tony Sjodin | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 32.9% | 58.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.