Race 1B

shamrock-scramble

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

72.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Thomas Szymanski 23.1% 23.5% 19.8% 17.6% 11.6% 3.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Michael Lively 31.9% 24.3% 19.1% 12.8% 7.8% 3.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grace Marcheselli 1.4% 2.4% 1.9% 4.1% 6.2% 10.4% 21.4% 21.5% 22.8% 7.1% 0.8%
Sarah Youtt 10.6% 10.8% 14.9% 19.2% 18.8% 16.4% 6.4% 2.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Emma Turner 10.4% 13.0% 15.8% 14.2% 19.7% 15.9% 7.5% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Marina Hutzler 16.7% 18.6% 20.3% 18.7% 13.6% 8.3% 3.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Daniel Timofeev 1.5% 2.4% 2.4% 3.0% 5.3% 10.3% 17.8% 23.8% 23.7% 8.6% 1.2%
Colin Higgins 3.0% 3.0% 3.6% 6.7% 10.9% 20.6% 21.9% 17.2% 10.2% 2.4% 0.5%
Thomas Wirbel 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.8% 1.5% 2.8% 5.9% 9.7% 45.6% 32.3%
Megan O'Gorman 0.9% 1.5% 1.7% 3.2% 5.0% 9.3% 16.5% 22.8% 26.8% 10.9% 1.4%
Lindsey Heben 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 1.1% 2.9% 5.4% 25.3% 63.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.