← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
81.8%
Within 2 Positions
0.9
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Northwestern University0.70+2.35vs Predicted
-
2University of Notre Dame1.04+0.80vs Predicted
-
3University of Michigan0.28+1.12vs Predicted
-
4Marquette University0.20+0.23vs Predicted
-
5University of Wisconsin1.24-2.48vs Predicted
-
6Marquette University-1.21+0.47vs Predicted
-
7Saint Mary's College-1.68+0.04vs Predicted
-
8University of Notre Dame-2.03-0.35vs Predicted
-
9University of Notre Dame-1.92-1.38vs Predicted
-
10John Carroll University-3.80-0.20vs Predicted
-
11Ohio State University-4.52-0.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.35Northwestern University0.700.2%1st Place
-
2.8University of Notre Dame1.040.2%1st Place
-
4.12University of Michigan0.280.1%1st Place
-
4.23Marquette University0.200.1%1st Place
-
2.52University of Wisconsin1.240.3%1st Place
-
6.47Marquette University-1.210.0%1st Place
-
7.04Saint Mary's College-1.680.0%1st Place
-
7.65University of Notre Dame-2.030.0%1st Place
-
7.62University of Notre Dame-1.920.0%1st Place
-
9.8John Carroll University-3.800.0%1st Place
-
10.39Ohio State University-4.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Hutzler | 16.6% | 17.2% | 20.4% | 20.8% | 15.4% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Szymanski | 24.1% | 24.2% | 21.4% | 15.4% | 8.9% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Youtt | 10.4% | 11.3% | 16.0% | 17.3% | 20.3% | 15.4% | 6.9% | 2.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Emma Turner | 10.1% | 10.6% | 13.3% | 18.8% | 21.4% | 15.2% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Lively | 31.6% | 26.6% | 17.3% | 12.3% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Higgins | 1.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 9.7% | 20.2% | 21.6% | 17.5% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 0.1% |
| Grace Marcheselli | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 7.1% | 13.8% | 20.1% | 22.7% | 18.9% | 5.8% | 0.5% |
| Megan O'Gorman | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 10.5% | 17.3% | 23.0% | 24.3% | 12.7% | 1.0% |
| Daniel Timofeev | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 9.2% | 16.6% | 22.3% | 26.5% | 9.4% | 3.1% |
| Thomas Wirbel | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 11.7% | 44.5% | 31.5% |
| Lindsey Heben | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 24.7% | 63.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.