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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.69+4.38vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+5.06vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+3.20vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania3.12+2.94vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College3.06+2.24vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.81-1.19vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.68+1.66vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.95-0.46vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University2.31+0.94vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.27+0.40vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University2.82-2.73vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-5.00vs Predicted
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13Hampton University1.08+0.91vs Predicted
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14William and Mary0.68+0.83vs Predicted
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15Princeton University2.35-5.19vs Predicted
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16Villanova University0.91-1.46vs Predicted
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17Drexel University1.35-3.65vs Predicted
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18Virginia Tech0.59-2.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.38Georgetown University3.690.1%1st Place
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7.06U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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6.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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6.94University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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7.24SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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4.81Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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8.66George Washington University2.680.1%1st Place
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7.54Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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9.94Christopher Newport University2.310.0%1st Place
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10.4Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
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8.27Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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7.0St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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13.91Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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14.83William and Mary0.680.0%1st Place
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9.81Princeton University2.350.0%1st Place
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14.54Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
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13.35Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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15.12Virginia Tech0.590.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC Hermus | 12.1% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carrson Pearce | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 9.0% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Benton Amthor | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 14.2% | 16.1% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Logue | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Javier Gonzalez Rotge | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Gerard Eastman | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Leo Boucher | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.6% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 12.0% | 15.5% | 17.5% | 14.3% |
| Nathan Whisner | 1.1% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 14.3% | 18.5% | 25.9% |
| Connor Mraz | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Owen Ward | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 12.1% | 14.3% | 20.6% | 18.9% |
| Toby Sullivan | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 15.5% | 14.6% | 9.2% |
| Christopher Magno | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 6.8% | 11.0% | 14.2% | 19.7% | 29.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.