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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.69+4.37vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+5.09vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+3.91vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+1.99vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania3.12+2.00vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.68+2.75vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University2.31+3.00vs Predicted
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8Drexel University1.35+5.10vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.95-1.36vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.27+0.43vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University3.81-6.12vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College3.06-4.45vs Predicted
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13Villanova University0.91+1.28vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University2.82-6.09vs Predicted
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15Hampton University1.08-0.99vs Predicted
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16Princeton University2.35-6.07vs Predicted
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17William and Mary0.68-1.87vs Predicted
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18Virginia Tech0.59-2.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.37Georgetown University3.690.1%1st Place
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7.09U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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6.91St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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5.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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7.0University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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8.75George Washington University2.680.0%1st Place
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10.0Christopher Newport University2.310.0%1st Place
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13.1Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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7.64Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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10.43Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
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4.88Georgetown University3.810.2%1st Place
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7.55SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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14.28Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
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7.91Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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14.01Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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9.93Princeton University2.350.0%1st Place
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15.13William and Mary0.680.0%1st Place
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15.04Virginia Tech0.590.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC Hermus | 12.2% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carrson Pearce | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leo Boucher | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 11.1% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 8.0% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Matt Logue | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Javier Gonzalez Rotge | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Toby Sullivan | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 13.5% | 15.1% | 14.2% | 7.9% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Eastman | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 0.3% |
| Sean Segerblom | 16.3% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benton Amthor | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Owen Ward | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 14.3% | 15.8% | 20.3% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 14.4% | 14.9% | 16.1% | 14.5% |
| Connor Mraz | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Nathan Whisner | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 13.8% | 21.4% | 28.3% |
| Christopher Magno | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 10.2% | 16.1% | 19.5% | 27.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.