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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+5.24vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University2.31+8.27vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+4.06vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.81+0.72vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.82+3.02vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania3.12+1.09vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.95+0.60vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.68+0.59vs Predicted
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9Princeton University2.35+0.81vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-3.12vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University3.69-5.75vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College3.06-4.47vs Predicted
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13Drexel University1.35+0.13vs Predicted
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14Villanova University0.91+0.29vs Predicted
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15Virginia Tech0.59+0.29vs Predicted
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16Hampton University1.08-1.88vs Predicted
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17William and Mary0.68-1.89vs Predicted
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18Cornell University2.27-8.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.24Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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10.27Christopher Newport University2.310.0%1st Place
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7.06U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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4.72Georgetown University3.810.2%1st Place
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8.02Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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7.09University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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7.6Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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8.59George Washington University2.680.1%1st Place
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9.81Princeton University2.350.0%1st Place
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6.88St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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5.25Georgetown University3.690.1%1st Place
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7.53SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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13.13Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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14.29Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
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15.29Virginia Tech0.590.0%1st Place
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14.12Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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15.11William and Mary0.680.0%1st Place
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9.99Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 9.0% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Javier Gonzalez Rotge | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Carrson Pearce | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 15.4% | 14.9% | 13.6% | 11.7% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Matt Logue | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Connor Mraz | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Leo Boucher | 9.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| JC Hermus | 14.1% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benton Amthor | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Toby Sullivan | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 15.0% | 13.6% | 14.6% | 8.4% |
| Owen Ward | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 10.7% | 17.3% | 19.4% | 16.4% |
| Christopher Magno | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 9.2% | 14.9% | 20.8% | 29.8% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 14.5% | 16.3% | 15.3% | 16.1% |
| Nathan Whisner | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 15.4% | 20.2% | 27.7% |
| Gerard Eastman | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.