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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.69+4.34vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.95+5.88vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+3.92vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College3.06+3.18vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+1.11vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University2.31+4.05vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.81-2.20vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16-1.12vs Predicted
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9Hampton University1.08+5.03vs Predicted
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10Villanova University0.91+4.54vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.68-2.16vs Predicted
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12William and Mary0.68+3.21vs Predicted
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13Princeton University2.35-3.29vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania3.12-7.12vs Predicted
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15Drexel University1.35-1.79vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University2.82-7.80vs Predicted
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17Virginia Tech0.59-1.72vs Predicted
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18Cornell University2.27-8.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.34Georgetown University3.690.1%1st Place
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7.88Fordham University2.950.0%1st Place
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6.92St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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7.18SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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6.11Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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10.05Christopher Newport University2.310.0%1st Place
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4.8Georgetown University3.810.2%1st Place
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6.88U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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14.03Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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14.54Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
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8.84George Washington University2.680.1%1st Place
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15.21William and Mary0.680.0%1st Place
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9.71Princeton University2.350.0%1st Place
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6.88University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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13.21Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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8.2Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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15.28Virginia Tech0.590.0%1st Place
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9.96Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC Hermus | 12.7% | 12.9% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Leo Boucher | 7.5% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benton Amthor | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Hector Guzman | 10.2% | 11.8% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Javier Gonzalez Rotge | 3.4% | 2.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Sean Segerblom | 16.0% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carrson Pearce | 8.2% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 16.0% | 19.0% | 11.2% |
| Owen Ward | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 11.8% | 18.8% | 18.0% | 18.4% |
| Matt Logue | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Whisner | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 22.2% | 28.6% |
| Connor Mraz | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.3% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 6.8% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Toby Sullivan | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 12.1% | 13.0% | 14.7% | 12.2% | 8.1% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Magno | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 18.7% | 31.7% |
| Gerard Eastman | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.