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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+5.82vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+4.22vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.81+1.88vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.69+1.07vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.82+3.01vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.68+2.69vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College3.06+0.22vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University2.31+1.84vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.27+1.07vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.95-2.19vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16-4.02vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania3.12-4.68vs Predicted
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13Princeton University2.35-3.30vs Predicted
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14Virginia Tech0.59+0.95vs Predicted
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15Villanova University0.91-0.62vs Predicted
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16William and Mary0.21-0.05vs Predicted
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17Drexel University1.35-3.67vs Predicted
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18Hampton University1.08-4.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.82St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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6.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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4.88Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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5.07Georgetown University3.690.1%1st Place
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8.01Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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8.69George Washington University2.680.1%1st Place
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7.22SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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9.84Christopher Newport University2.310.0%1st Place
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10.07Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
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7.81Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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6.98U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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7.32University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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9.7Princeton University2.350.0%1st Place
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14.95Virginia Tech0.590.0%1st Place
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14.38Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
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15.95William and Mary0.210.0%1st Place
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13.33Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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13.76Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 7.6% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Sean Segerblom | 12.9% | 14.8% | 12.9% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JC Hermus | 14.8% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Matt Logue | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Benton Amthor | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Javier Gonzalez Rotge | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Gerard Eastman | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 7.4% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Carrson Pearce | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Connor Mraz | 3.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Christopher Magno | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 15.1% | 23.0% | 22.5% |
| Owen Ward | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 14.1% | 16.0% | 18.9% | 15.9% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 12.2% | 19.1% | 43.5% |
| Toby Sullivan | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 10.9% | 13.3% | 15.6% | 14.6% | 8.0% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 13.9% | 17.8% | 17.1% | 8.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.