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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+5.30vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.81+2.93vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College3.06+4.40vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.68+4.54vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+1.67vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.27+4.18vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania3.12+0.02vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.82+0.05vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16-2.21vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.95-2.15vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University3.69-5.72vs Predicted
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12Villanova University0.91+2.63vs Predicted
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13Princeton University2.35-3.29vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University2.31-4.39vs Predicted
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15Virginia Tech0.59+0.09vs Predicted
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16Drexel University1.35-2.73vs Predicted
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17William and Mary0.21-1.07vs Predicted
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18Hampton University1.08-4.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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4.93Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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7.4SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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8.54George Washington University2.680.1%1st Place
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6.67St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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10.18Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
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7.02University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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8.05Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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6.79U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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7.85Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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5.28Georgetown University3.690.1%1st Place
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14.63Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
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9.71Princeton University2.350.0%1st Place
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9.61Christopher Newport University2.310.0%1st Place
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15.09Virginia Tech0.590.0%1st Place
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13.27Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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15.93William and Mary0.210.0%1st Place
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13.75Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 11.6% | 14.8% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benton Amthor | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Matt Logue | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Leo Boucher | 9.0% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Eastman | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 0.3% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 7.3% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Carrson Pearce | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 7.3% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| JC Hermus | 13.9% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Owen Ward | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 17.5% | 20.7% | 16.8% |
| Connor Mraz | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Javier Gonzalez Rotge | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Christopher Magno | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 17.1% | 22.9% | 22.5% |
| Toby Sullivan | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 12.2% | 14.5% | 13.9% | 15.1% | 5.9% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 8.2% | 12.9% | 18.2% | 42.8% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 16.0% | 17.9% | 14.0% | 10.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.